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The turn of the 21st century was an opportunity to reflect on the past
and speculate about the future. This milestone not only heralded the beginning
of a new millennium but also marked more than 50 years of several key
global institutions, not least the United Nations and World Bank.
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| 'When sizing up prospects for the future, some find grounds for
optimism but others are more apprehensive.' |
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Events at regional level also provide much food for thought. The countries
of the European Union (EU) face the possibility of membership nearly doubling
in one or two decades, spurred on by the end of the Cold War and the collapse
of the eastern bloc. In Africa, the relatively peaceful end of apartheid
in South Africa and the transition from military to civilian rule in Nigeria
have changed the political climate. These turnabouts in the continent's
two most populous countries open the door for new debate on how to solve
Africa's persistent problems, including civil wars, poverty, inequality
and the AIDS pandemic. Political changes in Asia and the Pacific, notably
in Indonesia and the Philippines, and the repercussions of the economic
crisis in the late 1990s are stimulating fresh dialogue about the future
of the region. In Latin America and the Caribbean, a period of relative
stability has prompted increased willingness to address important issues
inherited from the past. As they find themselves in the centre of some
of the most publicized geopolitical events, the people of West Asia eye
their future warily. Meanwhile, the recent economic slowdown and terrorist
attacks have led many North Americans to reassess their actions at home
and abroad to a degree not seen in decades.
At this time, the world is marked by tumultuous change. A global system
seems to be taking shape as economic interdependence increases. Information
technology accelerates the spread of ideas and the human transformation
of nature becomes evident on a planetary scale. As economies grow, the
rich get richer and many of the poor manage to escape from poverty. But
huge disparities persist as vast wealth coexists with abject poverty and
each extreme generates its own characteristic environmental pressures.
When sizing up prospects for the future, some find grounds for optimism
but others are more apprehensive. In spite of potentially powerful antiglobalization
forces, the optimists foresee the formation of a true global market and
relish the opportunities for greater efficiency and connectedness. The
pursuit of individual wealth on a global economic playing field made level
by universal governance mechanisms to reduce market barriers can, they
believe, open the way to a new age of affluence for all. If developing
country institutions can be adapted to benefit from the new technologies
and the emerging borderless economy, and if appropriate forms of global
governance can be created, the rising tide of global prosperity will lift
everyone to new heights of well-being.
Sceptics, looking at the same phenomena, see riskier times ahead. They
point to wealth and power accumulating in just a few hands, especially
those of transnational corporations. They see unequal expansion of modern
production methods around the world, two-track development and stubbornly
onesided and manipulative approaches to global negotiations. The pessimists
fear the result will be erosion of trust between the North and the South
and between populations within both, ending up in a chronic inability
to forge credible, legitimate and enforceable agreements on sustainable
development. How, they wonder, can unbridled pursuit of economic growth
be kept within environmental limits? Will market-driven global development,
far from engendering a sense of participation in a common global society,
tend instead to continue to split humanity into privileged and excluded,
North and South, modernist and traditionalist factions? If the accelerated
transition to a global economy fails to give institutions time to adapt,
will community cohesion and democratic participation be sacrificed to
it?
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Markets First |
| Most of the world adopts the values and expectations
prevailing in today's industrialized countries. The wealth of nations
and the optimal play of market forces dominate social and political
agendas. Trust is placed in further globalization and liberalization
to enhance corporate wealth, create new enterprises and livelihoods,
and so help people and communities to afford to insure against - or
pay to fix - social and environmental problems. Ethical investors,
together with citizen and consumer groups, try to exercise growing
corrective influence but are undermined by economic imperatives. The
powers of state officials, planners and lawmakers to regulate society,
economy and the environment continue to be overwhelmed by expanding
demands. |
Many feel apprehensive, too, about the prospect that their children will
inherit an impoverished and fragile world that is ecologically, socially
and economically depleted. More fundamentally, some object to the encouragement
of traits and lifestyles founded on individualism and greed, which they
see emerging from this global consumer culture. Several important initiatives
pave the way for the major developments in the new century. The Doha round
of negotiations within the World Trade Organization (WTO) - including
its newest member, China - provides the legal basis for an expanded global
trading system. Significantly, it has written into it a recognition that
this system must take into account important social and environmental
concerns, in addition to the core economic goals. A multilateral agreement
on investment liberalizes investment regimes first in Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, with expectations
that this will follow shortly throughout the world. The coalition against
terrorism paves the way for new approaches to international security.
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| 'Factors combine to make the shift to a liberalized, marketoriented
society almost universal.' |
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Meanwhile, efforts continue to salvage the climate negotiations, to build
upon multilateral environmental agreements in other areas and to address
important social issues. Much of this effort initially hinges on international
activities, particularly the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD)
and follow-up activities, which galvanize a renewed commitment to action.
This commitment revolves around a mixture of old and new initiatives
designed to gain a better understanding of the issues that cause concern
and to tackle them more effectively. Goals and targets related to basic
needs (food security, access to clean water, sanitation, literacy and
life expectancy) and environmental conditions (urban air quality, availability
of fresh water, resource use, waste disposal and habitat/species preservation)
are reiterated. A commitment is also made to strengthen international
institutions of governance.
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