Biodiversity is a broad and complex concept. It
encompasses the overall variety found in the living
world, from genes, to species, and ecosystems.
Here, we will focus on species, considering the
variety of plant and animal species in a certain
area (species richness) and their population sizes
(species abundance). Population size is the number
of individuals per species, generally expressed
as the abundance of a species or briefly "species
abundance". The various types of natural regions
in the world, also called "biomes", vary greatly in
number and composition of species; a tropical
rainforest is entirely different from deserts or
tundras.
The markedly increased rate of biodiversity loss we
face today is the unintentional result of increasing
human activities all over the world. The process
of biodiversity loss is generally characterized by
a decrease in the abundance of many original
species and an increase in abundance of a few
other, opportunistic species as a result of human
activities. Extinction is the last step of what may
be a long process of degradation; numerous local
extinctions may precede the potentially final global
extinction. As a result of human development, many
ecosystems that had differed from one another are
becoming increasingly alike, more "homogenized".
Decreasing populations are as much a signal of
biodiversity loss as strongly expanding species,
which may sometimes become invasive.
Although we know that global biodiversity is
declining at an unprecedented rate (Jenkins
2003), until recently it was difficult to measure the
process of biodiversity loss, as species richness
appeared to be an insufficient indicator. First, it is
hard to monitor the number of species in an area,
but more importantly, disturbance may initially
increase species richness as original species
are gradually replaced by new human-dispersed
invasives. For this reason, the Convention on
Biological Diversity (CBD) has chosen to use,
among other measures, species abundance as an
indicator of biological degradation. Thus, in this
report and in the GLOBIO model, biodiversity is
defined as the whole set of original species and
their corresponding abundance. Furthermore,
because of the effort involved, thorough mapping
and monitoring across large areas is not feasible
in most regions. Fortunately, there are numerous
thorough peer-reviewed empirical studies that quantitatively link changes in habitat, such as
fragmentation, to biodiversity loss. Based on
literature for specific habitat types and the extent of
the pressures present, we can model the potential
loss in biodiversity compared to the undisturbed
state by projecting the impact of changes in
different pressures over time. By comparing and
analyzing historical changes in habitats, including
use of satellite imagery, records in changes can be
projected using different types of scenarios and
assumptions.
Biodiversity loss is expressed here as the average
species abundance of the original species
compared to the natural or low-impacted state.
Increasing exotic populations do not compensate
for the loss of decreasing populations in the
indicator. If the indicator is 100 per cent then the
biodiversity is similar to the natural or low-affected
state. If the indicator is 50 per cent then the average
abundance of the original species is 50 per cent
of the natural or low-affected state, and so on. To
avoid masking, significant increased populations
of original species are truncated at 100 per cent,
although they should have a negative score.
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