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Catherine McMullen
Catherine McMullen
Topic: Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation
Catherine McMullen is the editor of, and a writer for, the UNEP Year Book. Her scientific background is in Fluvial Geomorphology and she has a degree in Science Writing with a specialty in Earth Syst...
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Number of questions: [6]
Posted on 08/12/2007 03:41:43
I was wondering for in the future, how much will the climate change due to global warming? Will it get warmer or colder in the United States?
Jenny (from United States of America)
Dear Jenny,

Thanks for your question—the most important question that any of us have about climate change: how will it affect us, here where we live?

First, I want to refer you to a marvelous contribution to climate change awareness in your country, the US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change: A detailed overview of the consequences of climate change and mechanisms for adaptation. You can find it online at: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/default.htm

You might be surprised at how old the site looks but the Assessment hasn’t had any federal funding for promotion or distribution since 2000, when most of it had become available to the public, and the staff has moved on to other jobs. In 2000 the Assessment was coming to the end of a 5 or 6 year process that involved extensive stakeholder participation from communities, businesses, industries, and sub-national government representatives.

Many of those stakeholder groups went on to sustain local, city, county, and state research and lobbying efforts in support of mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change. The Assessment provides an amazing wealth of detail and insight and you can find local or state participants in the regional or sectoral volumes who can update you on the most recent developments in your area.

For the most up to date assessment of climate change impacts—but with global coverage—you can see the IPCC Working Group 2 on Impacts and Adaptation Fourth Report, which became available in its entirety in September. It can be found at: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/

Basically, if we don’t do anything to reverse GHG emissions—or worse, if we increase them—we will likely see an average increase in temperature at global scale of at least 4° Celsius, which is about 7 or 8 ° Fahrenheit by the end of this century. This is a larger and faster increase in temperature than any since before humans developed agriculture (When the species numbered about 5 million souls in total). You can find sources and thinking behind these estimates in the IPCC Working Group 1 Fourth Assessment.

If we decrease our GHG emissions and massively scale up reforestation efforts and other biological carbon sequestration schemes, we may be able to keep that increase to 2° Celsius. But we will probably also need to embark on a very deliberate effort to sequester carbon in geological formations—an effort requiring expensive research and development, and deployment, programmes. (IPCC WG3 4th Assessment)

Regardless of what we do to get the GHGs out of the atmosphere, our past emissions commit us to changing conditions that require adaptation. The situation of developing countries is dire indeed because they have so few financial resources for adaptation which amplifies the purley physical vulnerabilties they have. The UNFCCC Adaptation Fund, set up to support developing country efforts around the world, has half the money budgeted to refit the London Underground in anticipation of climate change.

Posted on 07/12/2007 12:15:11
respected expert here iam having a question that why devoloped nations are still trying to exploite underdevoloped nations and they are saying it is better for growth. but in reality most of the devoloped nations like affrica still remain under devoloped.

this is v.ravi kishore kumar from india and working as a economics lecturer at management school.
v.ravi kishore kumar (from India)
Dear V.Ravi Kishore Kumar,

Thank you for asking this question because it brings up a contradiction that I often face. I am a fluvial geomorphologist, a physical scientist. I believe that an economics lecturer at a management school surely understands the complexities of economic theories that attempt to explain the present problems with production and consumption inefficiencies, with questionalbe motives associated with some development policies, and with perverse incentives emerging from globalization, among other challenges. much better than I do.

However, there are some very promising possibilities for attaining more fairness and equity if we consciuosly integrate opportunities for the poor and the local into the transition to an environmentally-sound economy that is needed for our low carbon future.

And transition we must, in the face of climate change. These opportunities are already being realized in communities that are being paid to offset carbon through adopting bio-gas systems and managing forest resources. What we have to concentrate on is that the benefits reach the women and the children and others who stand at the end of the queue—that the advantages bestowed by education and income extend to all, including those at the lowest levels of every society instead of accumulating among the rich.

Posted on 07/12/2007 07:49:01
climate change is taking plcace at unprecented speed that today a young child can notice the change in environment. what is the role of UNEP in reverting change. the swarms that use to have a lot water nowdays are dry. this is from a persaonal experience in my home precinity.
KENNEY ROTICH (from Kenya)
Dear Kenney,

Thank you for communicating your observations and concerns about how climate change is already affecting your environment. UNEP’s role in responding to climate change is to support efforts at mitigation—actions targeting the emissions entering the atmosphere from industrial processes, transport, agriculture, and other human activities—and adaptation.

In many parts of Africa, climate has become much more variable and weather patterns are difficult to track. Here in Kenya, adaptation is already underway through various aid and development programmes sponsored by your own government, by UNDP, by bilateral foreign aid projects, and by development NGOs.

One great hurdle to building resilience to climate change in Eastern Africa is the lack of weather monitoring capability. Filling that gap is high on the list of global observation system objectives. This could expand a micro-insurance programme already working in some parts of the region that provides payments to subscribers when the annual rainfall dips below a preset level.

The payment system is devised to provide resources for food and water before a drought is officially declared and the complicated drawn-out process begins to provide food aid to an area. With micro-insurance schemes, farmers do not have to dip into their seed stocks to feed their families while they wait for food aid to arrive and thus enter a vicious circle of deficit farming in a changing climate. UNEP is supporting the installation of weather monitoring capacity throughout this region to enable such programmes to reach your community and help build resilience and adapt to the changing climate.

I am sorry I took so long to answer your question but I wanted to give you some contacts that may be able to answer your specific needs: please contact Christian.lambrechts@unep.org or alex.forbes@undp.org for details specific to adaptation in Kenya and perhaps in your particular part of the country.

Posted on 07/12/2007 06:40:16
What strategies do you propose for educating policy-makers in your area of specialization ?
Centre for Environment Education (from India)
Dear Centre,

We here at UNEP are so happy that you send us this question every day because we can customize the answer to our particular activities. UNEP has an overarching strategy to monitor the state of the environment and communicate its findings.

One of our most important methods of communicating with, or educating, policy-makers is through the Global Environmental Outlook process. We have just concluded the Fourth GEO Report after five years of investigation and analysis and you will see that it quite forcefully communicates the urgency of climate change adaptation—building resilience to the impacts and reducing vulnerabilities—as well as mitigating the cause. You will also note the emphasis it puts on the overall problem of human activities that affect environmental integrity at every scale.

My unit has the great opportunity to reach out—to educate—annually with publication of the UNEP Year Book which is delivered directly to many environment ministers at a meeting of our Governing Council every February. Throughout the year, there are a variety of publications and education materials that UNEP provides, many that address impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to changing climate conditions.

One particular programme may interest you very much: UNEP’s Division of Environmental Law and Conventions has been participating with the UNFCCC for many years in training climate change policy negotiators from developing countries to better represent the interests of their constituencies during tough international negotiation sessions. Based upon the evidence, we believe this has been a very effective education process and our people have learned quite a lot form the trainees, too!

Posted on 07/12/2007 06:29:05
What is geomorphology? How did you get into this Field?
Ryan A (from United States of America)
Dear Ryan,

Thanks for the opportunity to tell you about Geomorphology—the study of Earth's land forms and how they developed. Understanding landforms involves geology (structural, economic, environmental, etc) climatology (oceans, hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, etc), soil science, biology, and human geography. I entered the field by chance, but in a similar manner to many who have an inspirational teacher: I like to be outside and when I was choosing my work load at University I chose a lot of courses that involved field work. Since I first heard a Geomorphology lecture by Dr Derald Smith at the University of Calgary, I have been hooked.

Posted on 07/12/2007 02:28:14
The earth's environmental problems (probably species loss being the most troubling) are evidently due to the impact of human beings. This impact is a result of a simple multiplication of (item 1) the average per capita human footprint/impact times (item 2) the human population. The world's religions often are against poulation control, or avoid discussion of it. How can we stabilize human population if religion still basically advises us to "be fruitful and multiply"?
Amos Stone (from United States of America)
Dear Amos,

Thank you for asking this question and giving me the opportunity to discuss the importance of the Millennium Development Goals—a key response to some of your concerns.

We have to consider human population and environmental carrying capacity beyond the simple boom and bust cycles observed among other species. Humans have the capacity to plan for the future and make decisions to realize plans. Responsible decisions and good planning emerge from a good education. This is why Millennium Development Goal Two is so important: Achieve universal primary education.

We need to educate girls and women around the world and in every religion as a step to addressing demographic pressures on resource and ecosystem service availability. Girls and women need to gain some understanding of biology and ecology and maths and literature (and , of course, boys and men do too!). This will help to achieve Millennium Development Goal Three: Promote gender equality and empower women.

Then women, and the men they make decisions with, will invest their energy in smaller families. Better sanitation and nutrition will result in lower infant and maternal mortality rates (More Millennium Development Goals). These lower mortality rates will lower family risk factors and the decisions that emerge from them. Then families can afford to have fewer children. Educating girls and women is the key.

    
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