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Marion Cheatle
Marion Cheatle
Topic: Environmental Assessment
Marion Cheatle is a specialist in environmental assessment, monitoring and reporting, and is the chief of the Early Warning Branch and Deputy Director, Division of Early Warning and Assessment, UNEP, ...
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Number of questions: [7]
Posted on 30/01/2007 21:30:05
I've been reading for many years about the interrelated problems of climate change, peak oil, habitat destruction, dependence of the green revolution on oil, fresh water shortages, and the like.
And it doesn't seem that we have either the global political will or the technology to replace oil or move decisively away from burning coal to meet our insatiable energy demands.
But what would the implications be of a newlly invented technology to generate, let's say, clean less expensive electricity? Although that might sound like the ideal solution, would it lead to more resource abuse, habitat destruction, species extinction, etc.?
Would the inventors face security risks as companies or governments tried to get their hands on the technology?
Would terrorists be able to misuse it as a weapon?
Would oil or coal or nuclear companies or oil-producing countries seek to undermine the technology?
And is there any way to condition use of such a technology on a region implementing more sustainable practices? Thanks for your thoughts..
danielle willard
Hello Danielle and thank you such a stimulating question.

Over the last decade or more there has been a lot of talk about these things you mention, but over this same time period scientists have been working on assessment of interrelated aspects within the larger Earth System. These assessments include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Reports, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment, and, of course, the GEO Assessments that UNEP has been producing since 1997.

Despite all of these carefully gathered, analyzed, and explained implications of human activities and ecosystem change, the political will to develop solutions that will flourish over the long term has been sporadic. This is manifested by the general reluctance to step in to the vanguard on implementation of Environmental Agreements (there have been some marvelous exceptions, thank goodness) as well as by the lack of research and development support that scientists and engineers working on innovative techniques and technologies receive from their societies.

Your ‘thought experiment’ of what would happen to resource abuse, habitat destruction, species extinction, etc if we had a clean, cheap, (and I assume limitless?) source of energy is a very useful one and it illustrates why we must adapt our behaviour to become an energy and resource conserving global society. There are a lot of social anthropology theories about how and where conspicuous consumption originated, but with over 6 billion people on this planet - all aspiring to provide their families and themselves with the best that life can offer - there is little doubt that wasteful and damaging consumption of ecosystem services, natural resources, or energy must be discouraged. Even if you have a wind turbine and live on the Newfoundland coast, you want to conserve the wear and tear on parts to delay the cost of replacement for as long as possible, right?

The risk that an inventor of such a technology might run would more likely be in the form of being smothered by all the companies offering money, incentives, and shares to buy the inventor out. I think today’s corporate interests have adopted the principles of diversifyin - now many petroleum companies also support solar or other renewable subdivisions.

Finally, there is your thought about requiring certain standards from a nation before a particular technology would become available. This was discussed as an option in UNFCCC/ Kyoto Protocol lead up to the 2000 Conference of the Parties in the Hague in reference to expected innovations emerging from the Clean Development . Many parties felt that was an impossible and unfair approach to technology transfer.
You can find a list of relevant publications at: http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mueller/framesetpublications.shtml

However a very successful precedent has been set by the (Integrated) Ocean Drilling Programme, which restricts the use of technologies developed under the auspices of the research programme to countries who are members of the programme. The transfer of these technologies is embargoed for a specified time. One example addressed how to handle the ocean floor-sequestered methane clathrates that they sometimes drilled through. Until the 1980s drilling had to close down when they hit clathrate deposits (which oozed up to the deck looking like vanilla ice cream) for fear of setting off an explosion. The programme developed techniques and technologies that allowed researchers to maintain drilling through clathrate deposits, and even allowed them to map and sample different types of clathrate. This knowledge has provided valuable understanding of these deposits both as a potential fuel source, but also their potential to become a natural hazard when they become unstable due to pressure or temperature changes.
You can read about the history and management of this programme at:
http://www-odp.tamu.edu/ or at http://www.iodp.org/

Thanks for the opportunity to discuss these issues. With best wishes, Marion

Posted on 30/01/2007 18:57:06
How does the UNEP lead in areas of resource and environmental management?
Prakash

Dear Prakash,

Thank you for your question. In keeping with its mission, UNEP's work programmes contribute in many ways to improving the management of the global environment and of natural resources.

In the area of environmental assessment, UNEP keeps the global environment under review, and strives to provide credible and up-to-date scientific information on the environment and emerging issues. The availability of such information strengthens decision-making on environmental management. The Global Environment Outlook (GEO) series of reports is UNEP's main assessment product; much of the GEO work is undertaken at regional, national and local scales around the world, and is supported by resources such as the GEO data portal, and a network of collaborating centres and experts.

UNEP also works in a wide range of areas, other than environmental assessments, to support environmental management. For instance, UNEP's Chemicals Branch assists governments in the sound management of chemicals, by promoting the exchange of information on chemicals and helping to build the capacities of countries around the world to use chemicals safely. UNEP's Division of Technology, Industry and Economics has a strong focus on the private sector and on cleaner production and sustainable consumption. UNEP also leads the implementation of the Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities (GPA). Moreover, the work of the multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), such as the conventions on biodiversity, climate change, migratory species, wetlands, desertification, ozone, and hazardous wastes, among others, is supported by UNEP, in particular by the Division of Environmental Law and Conventions.

Within the wider UN context, UNEP also coordinates the Environmental Management Group (EMG). The EMG aims at enhancing cooperation in the field of environment and human settlements within and beyond the UN system, and includes amongst its members the specialized agencies, funds and programmes of the UN system and the secretariats of the MEAs. The EMG is designed around an issue-management and problem solving approach, aimed at finding solutions to important and newly emerging issues on the environment and human settlements agenda and fostering joint action.

I hope that this gives you an idea of the range of ways, and there are many others, in which UNEP is working to support governments in environmental and natural resources management.

With best wishes, Marion

Posted on 30/01/2007 13:32:14
I am currently working on a paper on scientific uncertainty and environemental disputes. Could you give me some views.
Sridip Nambiar
Dear Sridip,

Let me start with suggesting that you focus your research. There are a plethora of different environmental disputes - with varying features distinguishing them – and it is thus vital for you to narrow your investigation and avoid generic fallacies.

The discussion on scientific uncertainty is especially salient in the realm of policy and decision making, key areas in the realm of conflict resolution. Unfortunately all environmental controversies – big or small - involve scientific uncertainly. It is the nature of the beast. Although a familiar companion to scientists, there is little tolerance in the policy area for ‘uncertainly’ or ‘ignorance’ – realities typically associated with complicated scientific systems. The culture of science thus ends up in competition with the demanding exigencies of economics and politics.

You must consider how the problem of ‘scientific uncertainly’ is exacerbated by the intricacies and the inaccessibility of numeric models. The more variables one has, the more uncertainly will arise. For example, models used to address multivariate and large-scale environmental problems such as global climate change have an inevitable degree of uncertainly. However, traditional experimental science retains credibility because it is conducted at levels of complexity where scientific inference is rarely disputed. See Conservation Ecology: Vol 4: No 1.

The nuances of the climate change debate are a good illustration. The IPCC reports represent a wealth of both accumulated knowledge and uncertainly and they thus tend to confound policy makers who prefer ‘certain’ facts. The presence of uncertainly has been interpreted as an undermining of scientific authority and has been used to excuse political apathy. Scientists often have differing views on the topic of climate change and this diversity of opinion end up supporting a political rationale for inaction. Look at the IPCC website for more information.

Clearly ‘uncertainly’ would dissipate with further investment into environmental research. The IPCC has been able to move many statements about climate change from the ‘possible’ to the ‘probable’ to the category of ‘beyond reasonable doubt’. Indeed, the scientific community has been able to make accurate weather predictions two years in advance – the El Niño phenomenon is a good example.

However the research system has in built biases: we currently invest more in the “production sciences” (engineering, economics and chemistry) than the “impact sciences” (ecology and sociology). Furthermore, private sector interests have more resources at their disposal than environmental groups. Skewed resources combined with selective mass media may result in the public hearing more about mistakes made over the exaggeration of risks rather than mistakes that lead to complacency about risks. See for example Thomas Dietz: Thinking About Environmental Conflict, 2001.

You should also bear in mind that environmental conflicts are especially contentious as the interplay of ‘facts’ and ‘values’ are often distorted. There is a tendency to assume environmental controversies are about facts rather than values. Factual disputes can be resolved by getting better facts – people will change beliefs in the face of new information. Changing values is more difficult and involves a personal transformation and a shift in identity. Often an environmental problem is dressed up as a scientific problem for political reasons. For a good example look at the case about the Pulp Mills on the Uruguay River, featured in UNEP’s forthcoming GEO Year Book 2007 (www.unep.org/geo/yearbook/). Another pertinent example is the ongoing project in the Virunga National Park also featured in the Year Book: there is a conflict of values between conservation efforts to save the gorillas and other natural resources vs. the desire by local populations for social and economic development of the land.

I hope that you find these ideas useful for your paper and good luck with it!

Marion

Posted on 30/01/2007 12:49:23
Dear Marion,

I´m currently involved in a Portuguese research group on climate change impacts and adptation. As I am focusing my research on tourism and health issues, I would like to ask you what is the current level of concern within the UNEP, about climate change impact assessment and develompment of early-warning systems in (or connected to) this particular sector (e.g. heatwave prevention; tsunami warning; draught and desertification, salinization, emerging diseases, etc...).

Thank you. best regards,
Tiago Lourenço
Tiago Lourenço
Dear Tiago,

UNEP is very concerned about the impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation options in response to climate change in all sectors. Our assessment and early warning efforts are evolving to incorporate the most up-to-date and reliable climate change projections into our own work. Many of the issues we address - such as biodiversity, ecosystem services, and environmental integrity - are under threat and these threats are exacerbated by the effects of a warming global climate and the repercussions at the regional and local scales. Expected impacts on the tourism industry are only beginning to be understood—but current research tells us that the industry will be severely affected and that significant adaptation will be required.

Just in the last few days we have heard that the fourth IPCC report says the Alps will lose their attraction as winter destinations and instead become summer respites for those escaping the high temperatures around the Mediterranean. As well, today we learned from Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation that Sydney will gain 5 Celsius degrees on average and suffer extreme water shortages over the next few decades.

UNEP’s Division of Technology, Industry, and Economics has a Tourism Programme and they point out these particular concerns that you may be interested in:

HOW GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AFFECT TOURISM
Natural disasters
Catastrophes like floods, earthquakes, wildfires, volcanoes, avalanches, drought, and diseases can have a serious effect on inbound and domestic tourism and thus on local tourism industries. The outbreak of the foot and mouth disease epidemic in England in 2001, for instance, severely affected Great Britain's inbound tourism market.
Climate change
Tourism not only contributes to climate change, but is affected by it as well. Climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of storms and severe weather events, which can have disastrous effects on tourism in the affected regions. Some of the other impacts that the world risks as a result of global warming are drought, diseases, and heat waves.
These negative impacts can keep tourists away from the holiday destinations. Global warming may cause:
• Less snowfall at ski resorts, and a shorter skiing season in the Alpine region. In already hot areas like Asia and the Mediterranean, tourists will stay away because of immense heat, and out of fear of diseases and water shortages.
• Harm to vulnerable ecosystems such as rainforests and coral reefs because of rising temperatures and less rainfall. A major risk to coral reefs is bleaching, which occurs when coral is stressed by temperature increases, high or low levels of salinity, lower water quality, and an increase in suspended sediments. These conditions cause the zooxanthallae (the single-celled algae which forms the colours within the coral) to leave the coral. Without the algae, the coral appears white, or "bleached" and rapidly dies. The Great Barrier Reef, which supports a US$ 640 million tourism industry, has been experiencing coral bleaching events for the last 20 years.
• Rising sea levels, the result of melting glaciers and polar ice. Higher sea levels will threaten coastal and marine areas with widespread floods in low-lying countries and island states, increasing the loss of coastal land. Beaches and islands that are major tourism attractions may be the first areas to be affected.
• Increased events of extreme weather, such as tornadoes, hurricanes, and typhoons. These are already becoming more prevalent in tourist areas in the Caribbean and South East Asia. Hurricane Mitch in 1998, for instance, heavily affected tourism in the Caribbean. Wind damage, storm waves, heavy rains, and flooding caused major losses in the local tourism sector.

The UNEP Tourism Programme is at: http://www.uneptie.org/pc/tourism/home.htm

Interesting analysis is being undertaken at Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute and you can find a short bibliography at this URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/Publications.5755.0.html#c1914

UNEP supports ongoing efforts in developing countries to adopt sustainable tourism principles as part of their economic strategies. This approach to tourism aims to preserve the landscapes, biodiversity, and cultures that draw the tourists in the first place. In the face of climate change, these efforts must adapt to changing conditions while avoiding maladaptive options—those that may solve a short-term problem but over the long-term increases vulnerability.

You may also be interested to look at the recommendations advanced by e-clat (http://www.e-clat.org) a network of researchers and stakeholders at the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, which include:
- Addressing the impacts on small island states and developing countries with a holistic approach
- Taking the effects of mitigation policies, as well as vulnerability projections, into account when planning for tourism
- Enabling stakeholders to assess their own vulnerability to climate change; only they know the specifics of their location and their infrastructure resiliencies
- Urging the IPCC to give tourism a higher profile given the planning underway to use tourism as a sustainable development strategy in many developing countries

The health implications of climate change and tourism is an even more complex issue given the additional variables. Basically, building resilience and sustainability in communities depending on tourism includes enhancing the health of local populations. Alerts and dangers on local and regional outbreaks of endemic pathogens should always guide individual tourists when planning their trips.

Here is an issue of the Journal of Sustainable Tourism that you might find useful:
http://www.multilingual-matters.net/jost/014/4/default.htm

With best wishes for your ongoing research work,

Marion

Posted on 30/01/2007 12:46:38
Dear Marion,
There is an increased business of bottling water in Kenya today. Each an every day a company is formed to bottle water. The increased trade in water is directly or indirectly impacting on the avalilable water resources in Kenya. There is always a big worry that bottled water sold in supermarkets may not be from quality/approved /ethical water sources. What is your assessment on the quality of water resource in Kenya today and what kind of measures should Government put in place to protect water sources from exploitation.
Benjamin, Kenya
Benjamin Komen
Dear Benjamin,

Thank you for your question. It is true that in Kenya, as in other parts of the world, there has been an increase in the bottled water industry.

Naturally the quality of the bottled water is an issue of concern both to the consumer and to the Government. At the same time the quality of water supplied through taps or by other means is one of the very driving forces that has resulted in the proliferation of bottled water. This is how the process works in Kenya:

• The quality of water resources in Kenya is taken care of by the Ministry of Water in Kenya. The Kenya Government issues a permit to an individual or to a company that seeks to extract water from the identified water resource. The Kenya Bureau of Standards (KBS) ensures that, before approval, the quality of that water satisfies the World Health Organization’s recommended standards for drinking water and the contents of the water must be displayed on the paper wrapping around the bottle. Things like its pH, Electrical Conductivity, amounts of Calcium, Magnesium, Sodium, Potassium, etc are clearly stated on the bottle.
• Once in the market, it is up to the KBS to constantly monitor through random sampling the quality of that bottled water. The consumer can aid this process by pointing out any suspect qualities of the bottled water.

Obviously bottled water is only one type of drinking water in Kenya. Whatever the source, it is important for everyone to take care of this valuable environmental resource. It is vital to reduce the damage to water catchments and water courses, through soil erosion, pollution, and other means, if we are to safeguard the quantity and quality of water resources now and for the future.

With best wishes, Marion

Posted on 30/01/2007 09:55:12
I have read all the 3 GEO reports you published on the website and I love your work I am waiting for the next one when will it be out?

shehrezade from Iran
shehrezade
Dear Shehrezade,

First of all thanks for the kind and encouraging words and expression of interest with regard to the GEO reports. The next comprehensive Global Environment Outlook report, GEO-4, whose main theme is "Environment for Development" , is truly an exciting one and a bit of a departure compared to the three preceding reports.

The extensive multistakeholder consultations and review process behind the GEO-4 is quite unprecedented! More than 1000 scientists and experts from governments and the civil society have generously contributed their knowledge and expertise to the report which, we hope, will further raise awareness, encourage meaningful actions through appropriate decision-making and further the debate with regard to the interface between the environment, natural resources and the development process. These issues are at the heart of the sustainable development debate and are being revisited through GEO-4, twenty years after the 1987 Brundtland report was first released.

The GEO-4 will be released in October 2007 as a book and on the unep.org website so please be on the look out and alert all the people that you know of the upcoming report! We look forward to getting your feedback once the report is out.

Thank you again and best wishes. Marion

Posted on 30/01/2007 09:46:08
Is UNEP going to publish anything on polar areas this year?

Juanita - Argentina
Juanita
Dear Juanita,

As part of its continuing efforts to raise global awareness about the effects of climate change, UNEP will release a publication - "Global Outlook for Ice & Snow" - in support of the International Polar Year 2007-2008. This new analysis will focus on the changes in ice- and snow-covered regions and highlight the consequences of those changes for the global community.

The "Global Outlook for Ice & Snow" will provide an up-to-date, concise review of the state of the environment and the trends in ice and snow-covered regions (cryosphere) of the world. It will feature case studies, illustrations, graphics and maps and will serve as an educational and reference publication. With a broad target audience that includes decision-makers at many levels, the report will look at the significance of changes in the cryosphere to human well-being and the implications for policy.

The assessment is now being written by a team of experts from many disciplines and many countries. Leading research organizations are involved in preparing and reviewing the report. The "Global Outlook for Ice & Snow" will be launched on World Environment Day, 5 June 2007, in cities around the world. Norway and the City of Tromsø will host the main international celebrations.

For your information, the theme of this year’s World Environment Day is ‘Melting Ice, a Hot Topic?’

Kind regards,

Marion

    
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