Traditional wisdom on coping with drought
(Mortimore 1998), complemented by cutting-edge
science and information technology (for example,
drought forecasting and climate change scenarios),
holds great potential for sustainable resource
management. If we can have better information
about the near future, we can plan better how to
deal with it.
Although drought alone cannot be held responsible
for causing food insecurity (Sen 1981), some desert regions face food insecurity and increases in
excess mortality during prolonged drought periods.
USAID has initiated a famine early warning system
project (FEWS NET: http://www.fews.net/), which
provides drought early warning and vulnerability
information for drought-menaced African countries,
both in semi-arid drylands and in deserts.
The objectives of interventions triggered by the
early-warning information range from saving lives in
response to immediate emergencies (for example,
emergency food programs and livestock health
interventions), to saving both lives and livelihoods
by reducing exposure to risk and developing
diverse opportunities to generate income (such as,
crafts and other off-farm employment) other than
from agriculture.
While the activities of FEWS NET tend to focus
on the most vulnerable human populations,
an example from a more robust setting is the
Rangeview project (http://rangeview.arizona.
edu) that sprang from an initiative to make
geospatial technology accessible to a range of
users. Launched in 2000 to provide rangeland
managers in the American Southwest with satellitederived
information about the status and trends of
vegetation greenness, it evolved into a decisionsupport
tool and has meanwhile been extended to
cover the entire United States. Similar initiatives,
making use of the Internet as an inexpensive
means of information exchange, could be beneficial
to rangeland management in desert regions around
the world.
This type of tool helps natural resource managers
to understand what is happening now, and
compare it with what has been happening over
time and come to an appreciation of where we are
at any point in time. As our ability to understand
and model the global climate system improves, we
are able to develop increasingly useful seasonal
weather forecasts for large regions and long-term
scenarios. These can be used to plan for adapting
to climate variability and change, which are
expected to be increasingly inevitable during the
next decades (Dessai and others 2005).
Technical knowledge and reliable forecasts
alone, however, are insufficient; they need to be
implemented to the benefit of people under a given
set of circumstances. Climate change adaptation
planning therefore must include the identification of
vulnerable population groups and the exploration of
effective and affordable livelihood strategies during
times of climatic stress. Perhaps most importantly,
there need to be systems in place that have the
political will and institutional capacity to act on the
most likely scenarios, or at least to accommodate
some outcomes.
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