Over the next 30 years, Europe is dominated by the reintegration of Western,
Central and Eastern Europe following the end of the Cold War. In both
Markets First and Policy First worlds, expectations of a
significant expansion of the European Union are borne out. This process
may stall in a Security First scenario or take on a very different
form in a world of Sustainability First. In all four scenarios,
the relationships between those countries within the EU and those outside
- notably the Russian Federation - are significant in determining, among
other things, the state of the environment in this region. The differences
in the evolution of such bodies as the European Environment Agency, which
is likely to become much stronger in a world of Policy First or
Sustainability First, also play a role.
Developments in Europe's relationships with other regions are also important.
The contrast between greater openness to trade and migration in Markets
First and Policy First worlds and a possible reversal of both
in a Security First situation, imply significant impacts either
way. Similarly, differences in the evolution of multilateral environmental
agreements make a conspicuous mark.
Two critical areas of development are agricultural policy and the relationship
between climate, energy and transport. They are explored here together
with other issues, in the contexts of atmosphere, land, biodiversity,
freshwater and coastal and marine areas. Finally, the implications under
each scenario of a major food scare brought on by a combination of factors
are explored in the box.
Europe's scope to address the issues of large-scale air pollution and
greenhouse gas emissions depends heavily upon developments in the areas
of energy use and transportation. Whereas extremely active policies to
improve public transportation, for reasons of both pollution and congestion
control, and to improve energy efficiency can be expected in Policy
First and Sustainability First worlds, these advances are unlikely
in Security First or even Markets First circumstances. In
the Markets First case, some economic policies, such as road and
carbon taxes, are likely and technological developments will continue
to improve the energy use per unit of activity. Growth in volume of travel
and economic activity in general is, however, expected to outweigh per
unit improvements in response to these policies. In a Security First
situation, lack of economic development in Central and Eastern Europe
restrains energy use in general.