Working in small groups, each person takes 4-5 minutes to consider the GEO scenarios and answer the following question:
What trends in the present day world are signals of one of the four GEO scenarios?
Discuss answers in the group.
Paste answers on flip charts (one for each GEO scenario). Are there more signals for one scenario than for others, or are the signals evenly spread? Discuss.
Note: It is possible that participants see elements of all four scenarios in the present world. On the other hand they might, for example, see many more signals for a “Markets first” world or a “Policy First” world. The important point of this exercise is to increase familiarity with the GEO-3 scenarios, and to start thinking about the way the present and the future are connected. The present always carries the seeds of multiple future trajectories, so it is to be expected that different people will see signs of different futures today.