|Figure 5: General scenario themes
Source: Gallopin and Raskin 2002.
In small groups identify a set of themes and sub-themes for a scenario exercise in your country. Build on the exercise in Section 6, where you selected an issue around which to develop scenarios.
Discuss these in plenary and agree on a list to be used by all groups in the following exercises.
To specify key targets and goals, including constraints or thresholds that are to be avoided.
An initial list of constraints, limits, goals and targets that will help define the scenarios.
In the context of the themes and policies to be considered, indicate specific targets. Some common examples are meeting the Millennium Development Goals and keeping the maximum increase in global average surface temperature below 2ºC. Be clear whether these are intended to restrict the scenarios to be considered or if they will simply provide benchmarks against which the scenarios will be evaluated.
Identifying potential policies
To specify the policies to be considered in the scenario exercise.
Within different scenarios, distinct opportunities and threats emerge. Society would respond to those opportunities and threats in many ways, including through policy responses. Incorporating such policy responses in the scenario exercise enables participants to anticipate and prepare for possible eventualities.
An initial set of potential policies to consider in the scenario exercise
The previous section of this module explored the issue of policy analysis in the context of scenarios in some detail. This is an issue that is also explored to some extent in the steps already described above. It is also a core aspect of Module 5 (Integrated Analysis of Environmental Trends and Policies). Thus, this step should build upon those efforts. At this point, it is important to be more explicit about the policies to be considered in the scenario analysis, recognizing that this should include not only previous and existing policies, but also other potential options.
Are there existing or potential policies you wish to explore as part of the scenario exercise?
Is there a preconceived end vision, or at least some aspects of a vision, i.e., specific targets?
To select specific (quantitative) indicators that characterize the system of interest, in order to enhance and elaborate the scenario narrative and provide measures by which to partially evaluate the scenarios against key criteria.
An initial set of (quantitative) indicators.
- In the context of the themes, targets and drivers, select indicators that would provide useful elaboration and deepening of the scenario narratives. Be sure to include indicators that can serve as metrics to evaluate the scenarios in light of any identified targets. Indicators are also a key aspect of a complete assessment (see Modules 4 and 5), so it might be useful to link this step with steps in those modules.
- Indicate in a qualitative way how the trends in a few of these indicators could evolve in the future. Even though this may not be as scientifically rigorous an exercise as quantitative modelling, it will help make explicit the participants’ understanding of the issues and scenarios. It will also provide a basis against which to compare the narrative and quantitative aspects of the scenarios.