Module 5 of the workbook focuses on assessments of the state of the environment (SoE) and trends. In Module 6, we address the fourth and fifth steps shown below (Figure 1).
|Figure 1: Key questions to be answered
by SoE analysis and policy assessment
in the IEA framework.
This module shows you how to develop scenarios and analyse them in terms of the impact they could have on existing policies or the kinds of policies that would be needed in order for a particular scenario to unfold. The module provides the basis for an entire process for developing and analysing scenarios.
The module begins with an introduction to what scenarios are (and are not), and provides details on particular aspects of scenarios and their development. Depending on the primary purpose of the scenario exercise, the form, content and process of your scenario(s) will differ. A brief summary of the scenario development literature and a few examples are presented. This is followed by a section that addresses more specifically how scenario development and assessment can be used to address policy issues. We then provide step-by-step guidance on one approach to scenario development, noting where this might need to be modified for other purposes. Recognizing that national and regional scenario development will often build on existing scenarios rather than start from scratch, we provide guidance on how this can be done. Finally, the module concludes with a section focused on the importance of communication and outreach as part of a scenario exercise.
After using the material presented in this training module you will:
- be familiar with the types of scenarios;
- have developed an understanding of the structure, complexity and dynamics of scenario processes;
- be familiar with the steps required for the development of scenarios; and
- understand how scenarios can be used for the discussion and development of policy options.
The success of a scenario process depends crucially on excellent facilitation. Scenario development and analysis is a demanding process, although we have tried to make it as easy as possible by presenting one step-by-step process.
See Exercise 6.1