2020 was, in addition to COVID-19, the year of intensifying climate impacts. Floods, droughts and storms affected over 50 million people, while wildfires devastated forests and communities. These impacts will only worsen. As UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report illustrated in 2020, we are not doing enough to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Based on Paris Agreement commitments, the world is heading for at least a 3°C temperature rise this century. Even if we limit global warming to well below 2°C, or even 1.5°C, developing countries will suffer, it is the poorest and most vulnerable on whom these impacts will be the most pronounced. The only way to minimize costs, losses and damages is to race to adapt.
The fifth edition of the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report finds that while we may be gathering pace, we are still losing this vital race. Almost three-quarters of countries have adopted at least one national-level adaptation planning instrument. Since 2006, multilateral climate funds have initiated around 400 adaptation projects in developing countries. However, adaptation financing is around 5 per cent of total climate finance, or USD 30 billion per year, far short of where it needs to be. Meanwhile, an analysis of adaptation actions showed that only 3 per cent reported evidence of real reductions in climate risks.
Action is also lagging on nature-based solutions, which can soften the blow of climate change and bring benefits for nature and economies. These solutions receive but a small fraction of climate funding and are not strongly enough represented in climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the impacts of climate change. Nations must prioritize a green post-pandemic recovery and update their climate pledges to include new net-zero commitments. But they must also back adaptation with financing and support to those least responsible for climate change.
I echo the UN Secretary-General’s call for a global commitment to put half of all global climate finance towards adaptation ahead of the COP 26 later this year. This would be a sound economic decision. The Global Commission on Adaptation in 2019 estimated that a USD 1.8 trillion investment in adaptation measures would bring a return of USD 7.1 trillion in avoided costs and other benefits.
The hard truth is that climate change is already upon us and growing worse. Investing in adaptation is as much a strategy to reduce poverty reduction as any other, one that becomes even more important in a post-COVID world, with recent estimates from The World Bank suggesting that induced “new poor in 2020 “ will rise to between 119 and 124 million. In a world which is vastly more vulnerable. In a world that is vastly more unequal. In a world that is vastly more insecure than anything we perhaps have ever seen, we cannot afford to lose the race to adaptation.
