United Nations Environment Programme

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Raj’s Blo^Zone - The Cancun meeting ended with a much needed deal. It was needed to ensure that momentum was not lost. It was needed to renew commitments. It was needed to buck up the sagging spirit left after Copenhagen. It was needed to overcome frustrations. Did the deal, however, meet the expectations of those around the world who were closely watching the negotiators and eagerly following the developments at the Moon Palace and Cancun Messe?
The deal is sealed. I only hope that these words are not forgotten but acted on. 

I recall childhood stories of messages sealed in bottles and thrown from sinking ships with the expectation that they would find their way to land. One day someone on the beach may then find the bottle and read the message – be it an SOS, or a note revealing the fate of those on the unfortunate ship. Surely, now we are all in the  same boat and time is running out. Throwing the ‘sealed deal’ as a message into the ocean and watching it float away on the waves is not an option.
Let me recall another deal that was sealed in Montreal in 2007. That was a deal, which I like to call the Montreal Protocol 2.0. It was the agreement to accelerate the phase-out of the remaining ozone depleting substances - HCFCs. These gases are also powerful GHGs, up to about 2000 times more powerful than CO2.
While the meeting was going on in Cancun with more than 190 governments deciding on the long and perennially debated issues such as funding levels for poor countries, fund management, mechanisms of technology transfer, and adaptation to climate change, I was attending a meeting in Montreal where the representatives from 14 governments engaged in implementing the ‘Montreal Protocol deal’. They took  courageous steps forward to fund the elimination of GHGs- approving, at this meeting alone,  almost US$ 14.5 million to eliminate 4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent HCFCs consumed in developing countries.  
This virtual tour has delivered a message from Bangkok to Cancun. This message is not in a sealed bottle, but one inspired by the actions and successes of the Montreal Protocol and its efforts to address ozone depletion while at the same time acting on climate change: success can be found by leading by example and ‘walking the talk’.

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Raj’s Blo^Zone - My friend in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the USA, Dr. Paul Newman with his colleagues in the Johns Hopkins University and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency carried out a simulation comparing the  ‘real-world’ ozone layer against a ‘world avoided’ scenario in which CFCs had never been banned. The simulation concludes that if the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, which entered into force in 1989 hadn't existed, nearly two-thirds of Earth's ozone would have disappeared by 2065. This would have caused ultraviolet radiation levels in mid-latitude cities such as Washington to be so high as to produce sunburn in just five minutes, with an increase in UV radiation, which can cause DNA mutations of more than 650 percent. This would have had significant effects on plants, animals and human cancer and eye cataract rates. This really is a catastrophic scenario.

Some of the recent environmental tragedies such as Hurricane Katrina or the flooding in Bangladesh or those expected from climate change such as environmental refugees, changing crop patters or melting glaciers could have been overshadowed by the catastrophic results of ozone depletion.

The simulation revealed that without the Montreal Protocol, by around 2050, ozone levels in the stratosphere over the tropics would have collapsed to near zero in a period of just six years, due to ‘runaway’ ozone destruction. Today some climate scientists are predicting such runaway climate change due to positive feedback effects that may result in rapid and potentially irreversible climate change.

Due to the Montreal Protocol, it is estimated that by the year 2165 more than 6.3 million skin cancer deaths will have been avoided in the United States alone and that efforts to protect the ozone layer will have saved the country an estimated $4.2 trillion in health care costs over the period 1990–2165. This amount is more than the recent global financial stimulation package offered by all countries.

How did we avoid this terrifying world? It was by collectively governing global policies, mainstreaming global commitments into national planning, nurturing political by keeping promises to meet the targets under the Montreal Protocol and assisting developing countries with financial and technology support.

“We simulated a world avoided,” said Newman, “and it’s a world we should be glad we avoided.” Dr. Richard Stolarski, Mr. Newman’s colleague added:  “The Montreal Protocol is a remarkable international agreement that should be studied by those involved with global warming and the attempts to reach international agreement on that topic.”

I recall the words of the UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres: "A richer tapestry of efforts is needed. A tapestry of holes will not work - and the holes can only be filled in through compromise”. I would add:  holes do not get filled by promises avoided.

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Raj’s Blo^Zone - Columbus embarked on his journey in search of a westward route to India. Instead he landed in America. There is a hidden lesson here; when we embark on a long journey, we can end up with unexpected benefits.

Above all, the world has discovered unexpectedly that multilateral platforms under the United Nations Framework do work - and not only do they work but they can also produce historic results! As Noble Laureate, Mario Molina has said, “The Montreal Protocol is widely considered the most successful environmental treaty, phasing out almost 100 ozone-depleting chemicals by 97% and placing the ozone layer on the path to recovery by mid-century. It also is the most successful climate treaty to date, because chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and most other ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) that it has phased out are powerful GHGs”

In addition to reducing the global consumption of ODSs to almost zero, the Montreal Protocol’s control measures have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of 135 gigatonnes of CO2 during the period 1990-2010. This can be translated to 11 gigatonnes a year, five to six times the reductions targeted in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. This latter, unprecedented achievement is even more remarkable given that global GHG emissions have increased by more than 35 % since 1990.

Developing country enterprises benefited from a new wave of technological innovation by upgrading their production lines and by deploying the latest energy and resource efficient technologies. Countries like China were able to phase out not only ODS but also inefficient enterprises, enabling industrial rationalization and the achievement of an economy of scale. Recycling, retrofitting, containment and best practices, in addition to the implementation of energy standards and labeling are just some of the “Columbian discoveries”  by industry and national governments that opened up unexpectedly new vistas for new employment.

The virtual tour from Bangkok to Cancun and beyond also has a hidden message. But I will divulge this only when the tour ends in the Americas! Suffice to say that the Montreal Protocol on its long journey also has reaped unexpected benefits, which were never dreamt of when the Montreal Protocol was first framed. As the virtual caravan has left the ‘green room’ of the Congo Basin to move towards the ‘center stage’ of Mexico, I am compelled to recall those ‘Columbian discoveries’.

During a long journey, there is often a strong urge to take a detour and visit home sweet home.

Nothing can be more exciting than arriving in the Congo Basin – It’s like a homecoming.  This tour is virtual, but the Congo basin is the real home to all of us. Our great grand ancestors, including Homo sapiens, hominids and Homo erectus, all came from this very area of central Africa.  It is our home, we evolved here, we learned to live with nature here, and we learned to respect flora and fauna here.  Then came the great migration in search of a better future. Did we get there? It’s worth reflecting on this as we arrive in Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo. There is no better place to reflect than in our ancestral home surrounded by the dense rainforest, the pygmy chimpanzee, the forest elephant, mountain gorilla, okapi and white rhino.

Our contemporary relatives in the Congo basin are certainly seeking better future, but not through migration. The vast and amazing biodiversity in the Congo is protected now not only though the National Parks and UNESCO World Heritage Sites, but also from the prevention of additional damage to the regions flora and fauna from destructive ultraviolet radiation as a result of the progressive recovery of the ozone layer.  Congo has received financial assistance of nearly US$ 4 million and eliminated almost 2000 ODP tones of ozone depleting substances such as CFCs and halons with the help of UNEP OzonAction and UNDP. Certainly Congo’s efforts have contributed to the success of the Montreal Protocol, though they have faced tremendous challenges and significant hurdles.

As the virtual tour crosses the Congo River to arrive in Kinshasa, several thoughts gather in my mind. It is considered that the 23 million hectares of the rain forest, nearly two-third of the country, is the ‘eco-capital ‘of the country.  At the same time one can consider the ozone layer to be part of the global eco-capital that provides significant ecosystem services to local communities. Forests are sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). At the same time elimination of the ozone depleting substances has also proved to contribute to GHG mitigation as ODS are also GHGs. The Montreal Protocol is also a sink!

The virtual tour is now crossing the ‘Great Desert Wall’ of Africa which cuts through Djibouti, on the east coast and extends 7800 km westwards through Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Chad, Nigeria, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania to Senegal on the Atlantic coast.  These great lands were once home to the Pharaohs and great civilizations of the past, and even perhaps to the first ever hominids. Progressive desertification and perhaps some unsustainable practices, such overuse of river and ground water, mono-crop agriculture, deforestation, and land degradation might have weakened these civilizations and contributed to their fall. 

Having worked with these 11 African countries, all of which are Parties to the Montreal Protocol and where UNEP OzonAction has projects to eliminate the ozone depleting substances (ODS), I have great faith in the countries’ ability to make difference. Ozone Layer protection was not, and is not, a priority for these least developed countries. However, all of them are in compliance with their commitments under the Montreal Protocol, having phased out CFCs and other ODS. Now they are all embarking on the phase-out of HCFCs. This is the achievement of the countries that are on the edge of Great Desert Wall. They had understood that ozone layer depletion is a global problem and every country, small and large, poor and rich would have to contribute to address this. They did.

You may be aware of the proposal to create a 15 km wide and 7,775 km long Great Green Wall of trees to be planted by these 11 countries to halt the advancing desert. This is an ambitious undertaking and one that will need the commitment of all the countries to succeed. I have no doubt that spirit of the Montreal Protocol will prevail in this project too! Our best wishes for Great Green Wall of Africa!

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Raj’s Blo^Zone - As we depart from Beirut we reflect on the future that the children who led this event will inherit. Our stop in the Lebanese capital has highlighted great successes of implementation of the Montreal Protocol but also provided a stark reminder of the challenges ahead.

We can be greatly encouraged that Lebanon has phased out ozone depleting CFCs, halons and methyl bromide well ahead of the target dates of the Montreal Protocol. It has therefore, along with other countries in the world, has certainly contributed to the stabilization of the stratospheric ozone layer. So we can worry less about the risks of skin cancer and eye cataracts of the children playing on the country’s beautiful beaches. 

In Lebanon one can enjoy breakfast on the beach and on the same day ski high in the mountains just before a lunch. Climate change may alter this and in the future Lebanon’s ski resorts may not have sufficient snow for these children and their children to enjoy. The energy and water crises may also not be far away if the urgent action is not taken.

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Raj’s Blo^Zone - Two meetings of two ‘climate protocols’ in the same continent are starting on the same day, the 29th November: one in Cancun - the 16th Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention, the other in Montreal – the 62nd meeting of the Executive Committee of the Multilateral Fund of the Montreal Protocol  on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

The meeting in Cancun is trying to inch forward to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere so that the Earth’s average temperature does not exceed 2°C. The meeting in Montreal is to decide on allocating funds to enable developing countries to eliminate  ozone depleting gases which are also greenhouse gases -almost 2000 times more powerful than CO2- the gas which the meeting in Cancun is mainly targeting

I am in Montreal in what is the last meeting of the Executive Committee of the year, which is overseeing the completion of the yearly funding allocation of nearly half a billion US dollars to eliminate about 3 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent of HCFCs in developing countries. As of yesterday the treasury of United Nations Environment Programme had a balance of almost USD 185 million which will is set to be allocated at this meeting for more than 100 projects from developing countries. We were pleased to hear the Fund Treasurer declare that: “94.27% of the 2010-pledges of the funds made by the developed countries are already paid” – this is quite a success since there is still some time to the end of the year!

Over in Cancun, the meeting’s opening statement made by the UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres informed delegates that: “Developed countries have announced pledges totalling USD 28 billion dollars and many of them are now making information available on the disbursement of these funds. This is encouraging and I urge developed countries to complete the work on this pledge in a transparent and timely manner”. She further added: "A richer tapestry of efforts is needed. A tapestry of holes will not work - and the holes can only be filled in through compromise. ”

I agree. Maybe compromises can be reached more easily if the risks of not reaching one are known and accepted by all parties. The Ozone Hole is being filled not by promises but by acts and compromises!

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Raj’s Blo^Zone - A shadow of pessimism seems to be spreading that a deal on climate is not possible in Cancun and that we cannot expect much from the negotiations there. I disagree.

My hands-on experience with the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols for the last two decades informs my thinking that the international negotiating process for the Multilateral Environmental Agreements is lengthy but can certainly result in a shared and common deal that could finally save the world from the potential catastrophe facing us. I was not present in Montreal in 1987 when the Montreal Protocol was signed, but I was in attendance in 1990 when agreement was reached on a financial mechanism for the Protocol and shortly after this I began leading the OzonAction programme. Our programme provides assistance to developing countries to comply with the Protocol which was described by Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the UN, as the world's most successful environmental treaty. I was present in 1997 when governments agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, and in Buenos Aires in 1998 when the market instrument called the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was agreed. But today we know that the Kyoto Protocol is far from delivering the expected results.

So now you may ask me how can I be optimistic?

The deal in Cancun will be to agree to reinvigorate the process leading to the binding targets. The deal will be to enhance the momentum of the negotiating process. The deal will be to commit not to stray away from the commitment and not to allow the present crises from deterring us from addressing the climate challenge. My hope is that the spirit of the Montreal Protocol would prevail in the conference center of Cancun!

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Raj’s Blo^Zone - We now left Armenia and are approaching Beirut in Lebanon. Did you know that its Arabic name "Lubnan" means white, the colour of the mountains? In winter the high peeks are covered with snow and in summer the limestone stone slopes glimmer white in the distance. However the beautiful white tops of the snowy mountains may just vanish in the future if we do not take action to halt climate change!

Lebanon expects maximum temperatures to rise 1°C on the coast and 2°C inland by 2040, according to government estimates. Thus some species, including Lebanon's national symbol, the mighty cedar tree some of which are up to 3,000 years old, may be put under additional pressure from increased temperatures and elevated ultraviolet radiation from ozone depletion. These pressures come in addition to significant deforestation. Indeed Vahakn Kabakian of Lebanon’s an Environment Ministry recently said: “I couldn't give you a specific date when we might see the last cedar on our mountains, but eventually that might happen".

You can find out about the environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change from a new report from the Montreal Protocol’s environmental effects assessment panel (executive summary of 2010 Assessment).

Come and learn more about OzonAction climate-friendly actions in Lebanon and the benefits from HCFC phase out.