Speech prepared for delivery to the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety Committee of the European Parliament.
Thank you, Pascal, for the introduction and for the invitation to speak at this meeting of the ENVI Committee.
It has been almost exactly five years since the world adopted the Paris Agreement. But, as two new reports from UNEP show, we have a long way to go before this landmark agreement starts to deliver on its potential. This is even with the many welcome commitments made on net-zero emissions, the EU’s among them.
Look, we all know our climate is in trouble. Last year saw a new record high in greenhouse gas emissions. This year is on course to become one of the warmest on record, storms, fires, heat waves, glacier melts and droughts are intensifying. And if our climate is in trouble, our economies and societies are too.
Before I get into what we can do to accelerate action, let me first provide a quick status update from the two reports I mentioned.
The Emissions Gap Report, released yesterday, tells us that the pandemic-linked economic slowdown is not going to make a real difference to the overall carbon load in the atmosphere, nor to climate change. As I have said previously, “the bathtub was already full, so turning off the tap for a couple of seconds, does not mean it is empty”. In terms of carbon emissions, we can expect a drop of up to 7 per cent this year – around five times the dip recorded during the 2008 global financial crisis. But the 2020 fall in emissions translates to only a 0.01°C reduction of global warming by 2050 and is therefore negligible.
As of now, we are still heading for at least a 3°C temperature rise this century – dangerously beyond the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C. To get back on track for a 2°C world, we will need to cut one-third off emissions by 2030. For 1.5°C, we need to halve them.
The UNEP Production Gap report, meanwhile, found that the world will need to decrease fossil fuel production by around 6 per cent per year until 2030 to have a chance of hitting the 1.5°C target. Instead, the current projection of fossil fuel projection averages an annual increase of 2 per cent every year.
So, in view of these basic facts, the common thread is very clear. We are far, far behind.
But there is another common thread, which is the potential of post-pandemic green recovery. But only if we do the right thing.
As we borrow funds to get our economies going again, we have a unique opportunity to drive a green transition. Never before have we seen these amounts of public resources pumped into the economy. Spending smartly the stimulus funds that parliaments approve holds the potential to cut up to 25 per cent off emissions we would expect to see in 2030 if we continue with policies in place pre-COVID. Such smart, green spending, in favour of the future, could bring 2030 emissions roughly in line with levels that give us a good chance of reaching the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. But much more is needed to reach the 1.5°C goal.
The reports lay out many ways to deliver emissions reductions. Direct support for zero-emissions technologies and infrastructure. Backing nature-based solutions and policies that enable lower-carbon consumption. Combining energy efficiency with a rapid transition away from fossil fuel in the shipping and aviation sectors, -- sectors that fall outside the Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs, but which have a significant carbon footprint. Deploying material and energy efficiency solutions in the buildings and construction sector.
The fiscal responses to COVID-19 taken so far at the EU institutional level are mostly considered to be climate positive or neutral, which is good. However, it is with regret that we observe that at individual member state level, there are unfortunately a number of missed opportunities or even climate negative examples. For example, as of October 2020, 24 out of 26 airline bailouts in the EU27+UK, totalling around EUR 26 billion, did not have any emissions reduction conditions .
Further, looking beyond the EU to the G20 members, -- a group of countries that contribute 78 per cent of all global emissions – we note that only around one-quarter of G20 members have dedicated some spending to carbon reduction aligned measures. And, overall, most spending across the globe has backed the status quo. This has to change.
We celebrate that a “Net-Zero Emissions Club” is emerging. This is encouraging. We now call on all countries to reflect their net-zero commitments in strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs, to really stretch on the climate agenda.
As I said earlier, the growing number of countries committing to net-zero targets is encouraging. All the more so since some of the G20 emitters – the EU, Korea, Japan, China and South Africa – have made commitments to net-zero by around mid-century. But so have many others, at the time of the completion of the Emissions Gap Report, a total of 126 countries – covering 51 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions – had adopted, announced or were considering net-zero goals. If the incoming US administration follows through on its intentions, countries accounting for more than 63 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions will have made ambitious commitments to climate action. That is massive and something really worth celebrating.
But these commitments now need to be translated into strong, near-term policies and actions. And be reflected in updated NDCs to be submitted well ahead of the next COP26 in Glasgow.
Because if we follow through on the net-zero commitments, and use our stimulus spending and invest in a green recovery to get a head start, and meanwhile push for systemic change planned and tracked through stronger NDCs, we can reach the 2°C target and have a real shot at the 1.5°C goal. It is therefore essential that the EU commits to reducing emissions by at least 55 per cent by 2030 in its new NDC.
The EU has shown global leadership. Now I call on it to show more.
The EU has long been at the forefront of climate action on a regional and national level. The EU has led efforts to reach net-zero emissions in the G20 and, of course, implemented many pro-environment and pro-climate measures. But now it is time to stretch further.
The proposed EUR 1.8 trillion investment package is an opportunity to invest in measures and technologies needed to accelerate change and achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement, while also providing jobs, stimulating opportunities and ensuring that no one is left behind.
By implementing the European Green Deal and the NextGenerationEU recovery instrument, and by mainstreaming climate and environment into the EU long-term budget, you can set a powerful example. The EU can demonstrate how to move towards climate neutrality and climate resilience while ensuring a green recovery and a just transition.
In a few days, the UK and France and the UN will hold the Global Climate Ambition Summit. This summit represents a clear opportunity for the EU to present its more ambitious climate plan. It presents a clear opportunity for the EU to lead among the G20 with concrete and ambitious near-term targets.
The leaders who will attend this summit took bold action on COVID-19, saving many lives and bringing us closer to an exit from the pandemic. The EU must now lead by taking bold action on climate now and encourage and support others to do likewise.
Thank you.
Executive Director
