The foresight exercise begins with an exploratory scanning of signals using a modified Delphi method, comprising a survey that was administered to key audiences followed by an in-depth analysis of emerging signals.
The Delphi survey is being rolled out in two phases. The first phase of this intelligence-gathering exercise seeks to identify disruptions, emerging issues and signals of change, in order to increase our awareness and preparedness for potential future changes, including opportunities, that could impact directly or indirectly the global environment. This includes requests for the submission of associated evidence. The second phase will consist of in-depth interviews and consultations on specific issues or themes that emerge from this initial intelligence-gathering, analysis and sensemaking.
Data gathering for the Delphi Survey was open from May to June 2023 and requested respondents to provide their views on
"What specific signs of change emerging on the horizon could potentially disrupt, positively or negatively, human wellbeing and planetary health between now and 2030?"
The data was subsequently clustered using thematic analysis and grounded theory to draw out the main areas of emerging change that would be the focus of subsequent steps of the horizon scanning exercise.
These survey responses, combined with insights from a series of consultations with global adn regional experts and stakeholders, have been distilled into 20 signals of change that were used to form the basis of a second Delphi Survey. Each signal represents an emerging and potentially disruptive development to planetary health and human wellbeing– a future possibility, different from today. The second survey aims to provide respondents opinions about the potential significance of these weak signals to assess the likelihood, severity and timeframe for potential impacts associated with each signal.
Combined with the outcomes of the discussions of the regional contextualization workshops and the results of the exploratory horizon scan, these inputs will form the basis of the upcoming Global Foresight Report which is expected to be published in July 2024 at the High Level Political Forum ahead of the Summit of the Future in September 2024.
