As the world prepares to gather at COP26, we at the United Nations are looking for world leaders to come forward with stronger plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions – plans that go far beyond what we have seen so far in new and updated Nationally Determined Contributions. These plans, and other 2030 commitments not yet officially submitted, put us on a path to a world that is 2.7° C warmer than pre-industrial times by the end of this century.
But even if we do get ahead of the climate crisis, even if we do start slashing emissions to hold warming to well-below 2° C or 1.5° C, we must start putting in place measure to adapt to the climate impacts that are already locked in. And make no mistake, many impacts are locked in, particularly when it comes to the water cycle.
The UN Secretary-General hit the nail on the head when he described climate disruption as “a crisis amplifier and multiplier”. The implications of the climate crisis for international peace and security are being debated with increasing frequency and intensity in the UN Security Council. In February this year, in a Security Council debate convened by the United Kingdom, Sir David Attenborough warned that “If we continue on our current path, we will face the collapse of everything that gives us our security: food production, access to fresh water, habitable ambient temperature, and ocean food chains.”
This growing understanding of the linkages between climate change, water scarcity and security is also reflected in Security Council resolutions on specific contexts. The Council has, for example, recognized that climate change “can contribute to desertification and drought, the humanitarian situation and stability in Iraq”, and has called on the UN system to support the Government of Iraq both in adapting to climate-related challenges, and in “facilitating regional dialogue and cooperation … on issues of … environment, water, adverse impacts of climate change.”
UNEP has identified water crises as among the top global risks for the coming decade. And in 2015, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report warned that climate change would reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources – intensifying competition for water among all sectors and affecting water, energy and food security.
We are seeing these warnings become reality. According to the WMO’s State of Climate Services 2021, more than 20 per cent of the world’s river basins experienced either rapid increases or declines in their surface water area in 2020. Since 2000, flood-related disasters have increased by 134 per cent, compared with the two previous decades. The number and duration of droughts also increased by 29 per cent.
And it will get worse as the planet warms. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report, released just a few months ago, told us that that continued warming will intensify the global water cycle, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation and the severity of wet and dry events.
We also know that be those in developing countries will be most-affected, especially in fragile or conflict-affected countries and regions.
In the Sahel, for example, a combination of heavy reliance on natural resources, climate change and population increase has contributed to widespread vulnerability and displacement. The UN tells us that a large proportion of conflict in this region is rooted in environmental matters, including water.
In Somalia, UNHCR research shows that climate-related events have become the major driver of displacement. In 2020, three quarters of new displacements were driven by flooding and drought, compared to a quarter relating to conflict.
Finally, according to recent World Bank analysis, water stress compounds other factors influencing the decisions of migrants. Basically, it can push people to move.
However, as Professor Biswas and his co-authors point out in their book, we have many ways to address these changes to the water cycle.
For example, agricultural production can be substantially increased with much lower water requirements, while domestic and industrial wastewater can be collected, treated and reused. If deployed promptly, such solutions will create a virtuous cycle that will increase food security and reduce tensions between communities and states around water.
So, we must scale up work to enhance management of water resources – with a special focus on the places in which people are most vulnerable to water-related disasters and crises. In practice, this means:
One, increasing investment in climate adaptation, including measures to enhance integrated water management in the world’s water stress hot spots. These include the Sahel, the Middle East, the Mediterranean Basin, Central, East and South Asia. As the Secretary-General told the Security Council in September, “we need a breakthrough on adaptation and resilience.”
Two, investing in Nature-Based Solutions, which protect water resources, prevent economic losses, and create jobs.
Restoration, for example, offers an array of economic prospects. Restoration generates an estimated USD 7 to USD 30 in benefits for every dollar invested. Protecting forests and mangroves, meanwhile, could prevent economic losses from climate change by up to USD 534 billion annually by 2050. Such nature-based solutions create jobs: between 7 and 40 per USD million invested, ten times the job creation rate of investments in fossil fuels.
Three, ensuring that our water management and climate adaptation measures contribute to protecting the most vulnerable, building cooperation and peace.
Many of the world’s water stress hotspots are also affected by conflicts and crises. Inequalities, gender-related roles and expectations, and unequal access to resources can deepen inequality and leave some groups disproportionately vulnerable. To build equitable management of water resources, we need cooperation among communities, and between states. This take time, so we have to start early and ensure our efforts are informed by science and by solid contextual analysis.
Four, drawing on technical and legal instruments to manage natural resources better and more equitably.
New technical tools help us to understand environmental change: for example, remote sensing technologies have enhanced our ability to measure the depletion of groundwater. We can also draw on technical tools to forecast droughts and floods.
International law, meanwhile, can help us to protect the environment and share water resources. The two global water conventions play a critical role in supporting transboundary cooperation. And we can expect to see movement now that the UN Human Rights Council has now recognized the right to a safe, clean, healthy and sustainable environment as a human right.”
This new resolution should embolden governments, legislators, courts, and citizen groups to act on policies that make this right a reality and help to safeguard and share water resources.
And as we seek to embolden multilateral action for the environment, we have an important opportunity ahead as we mark fifty years of the founding of the UN Environment Programme. Friends, as you may recall, the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden paved the way for the creation of the United Nations Environment Programme. I am proud that for 50 years we have served as the environmental conscience of the world, aiming to live up to the vision of early pioneers.
UNEP is the organization that has shaped global governance for the environment towards the healing of the ozone layer, and which continues to push for action whether on chemicals, pollution, biodiversity, endangered species or on protecting our regional seas. As the observer of environmental change, UNEP is delivering science that with ever greater precision decade on decade, sounds the alarm on a warming planet; on a planet which is losing biodiversity rapidly; and on a polluted planet.
UNEP, as the propeller of environmental rule of law in UN member states, has seen environmental law expand exponentially over the last few decades. UNEP is also a persistent campaigner working with countries across the world to end practices that cause human and environmental harm such as lead in petrol. And UNEP acts as a loudspeaker elevating environmental stewardship at dinner tables, into classrooms, into the media, into voting booths and into boardrooms.
As we seek to overcome the triple planetary crisis of climate change, of nature and biodiversity loss, and of pollution and waste, we must tap into the vision and determination that made 1972 possible, to reimagine global governance for people and planet.
Friends,
Climate change is with us now and will be with us for many decades to come – to a degree that depends on what nations, businesses, the financial world, and private citizens do at COP26 and beyond.
As the UN Secretary-General laid out in his Common Agenda, we have to work together, and each do our part to minimize the damage. The same applies to adapting to climate change and managing our increasingly scarce water resources. We need to ensure that these resources are managed and shared equitably. If we do this, we reduce conflict and migration, boost food security and help to ensure nobody is left behind.
